A deteriorating security situation in much of Nigeria in the lead-up to contested elections in February and an on-going bombing campaign by Islamist militant group Boko Haram has not dented investor interest in Lagos, Nigeria’s largest city and economic engine.
To many, Lagos appears insulated—if not removed—from the security concerns that plague other parts of the country. Boko Haram, the militant group that sparked global outcry when it kidnapped hundreds of schoolgirls earlier this year, is most active on the opposite end of Nigeria’s territory. Though Boko Haram has launched high-profile attacks in Abuja, the nation’s capital, that city’s central location makes it an easier target from the group’s stronghold in the restive northeast.
But a reported attack on a fuel tank facility on the outskirts of Lagos late last month could portend an end to the city’s relative tranquility. In that incident, a pair of explosions—triggered by a car bomb and a hand-held improvised explosive device—killed four people. Still, the attack caused relatively little damage as it failed to set nearby fuel facilities on fire and was not highly sophisticated. Boko Haram has not claimed responsibility, though the attack was likely a deliberate attempt to disrupt Nigeria’s fuel supply, carried out autonomously by a local LOCM -2.94% affiliate.
Local militant networks are a growing concern in Lagos. Terrorism-related arrests in the area over the last 18 months suggest that while such networks may lack sophistication, they are intent on staging attacks in the city. Security forces in March 2013 claimed to dismantle a small militant network that was planning to stage attacks across the city. The arrested suspects had at least two IEDs and a number of firearms, but it was unclear whether they had formal ties to militant networks in the north or were operating independently. In a separate incident in July 2013, security forces arrested 42 people in Lagos and neighboring Ogun state on suspected terrorism grounds. In both cases, details of the arrests and alleged plots were vague, though reports suggest that the plots were in relatively early stages and that links with militant organizations in the northeast were loose or non-existent.
Boko Haram’s leaders have repeatedly threatened to mount attacks in Lagos, and if anything, incentives for the group to do so are increasing. The run up to Nigeria’s presidential election next February would help magnify the political impact of any potential attack. Boko Haram’s aim in attacking Lagos would likely be to undermine the credibility of President Goodluck Jonathan, and any security lapse in Lagos would serve that purpose. In addition, because Lagos is the country’s commercial hub, any attack there has the potential to disrupt the economy, as would any subsequent government crackdown or reciprocal violence against the city’s many northern migrants.
Despite its apparent intent, attacking Lagos is a challenge for Boko Haram. Not only do local militants lack sophistication, but the social fabric of the city is far less hospitable to the kind of parochial religious conservatism that allows the group to thrive elsewhere in the country. Nevertheless, an estimated 4,000 economic migrants arrive in the city each day, and this community could provide an incubator for the shared grievances that Boko Haram’s leaders have used to rally support.
The absence of a strong local support base suggests that any Boko Haram action in Lagos would be occasional, rather than forming a sustained campaign. Although the June 25 fuel facility incident appears to indicate an intent to target Nigeria’s critical infrastructure, Boko Haram has in the past tended to focus on mass-casualty attacks against relatively poorly secured civilian targets. Capability constraints and heightened security in Ikoyi and Victoria Island, Lagos’ main business districts, mean that militants are more likely to focus on softer targets such as churches, bus stations, bridges, markets or police stations. However, Boko Haram has attacked high-profile targets in Nigeria in the past – most prominently the UN headquarters in Abuja in August 2011 – and if Boko Haram capabilities in Lagos improve, the militants would become increasingly likely to seek out a high-profile target such as a commercial hotel or a critical infrastructure facility.
Indeed, the security apparatus in Lagos has ramped up in recent months. Police are conducting additional searches on the main roads entering Lagos, and vehicle searches have become more thorough in city locations that might be likely targets. Police have also stepped up intelligence collection, and conduct relatively frequent raids against groups suspected of holding militant sympathies. These measures will certainly make an attack more difficult, but Lagos is a large, diverse city, and there are limits to what the police can detect.
For companies doing business in Nigeria, the possibility of a terrorist attack in Lagos should prompt a review of an organization’s risk profile. Beyond the immediate risk to personnel, an attack could prompt reprisals. Though nationwide upheaval is unlikely, intra-communal violence could create pockets of insecurity that disrupt business activities. Moreover, a high-profile incident could damage investor perceptions, complicate financing and restrict travel in and out of the country. Companies that have mitigation measures in place will be more likely to overcome these potential challenges.
Roddy Barclay and Thomas Hansen are senior analysts at Control Risks, the global risk consultancy.